First Quarter of 2026

The beginning of the first quarter of 2026 has presented an unprecedented challenge for the Dubai real estate market, with the UAE becoming entangled in the conflict between the US and Iran. The resulting conditions have led to polarized opinions within the investor community. However, most investors—particularly sellers—have shown strong faith in the market and refrained from offloading their assets or exiting altogether.

There are several reasons one could attribute to this confidence. With Golden Visas secured, many investors have viewed this “temporary predicament” for what it is—temporary.

As I write this, Trump has already announced a ceasefire in Lebanon, and there appears to be a growing sense of mutual understanding between Iran and the US, with Pakistan reportedly facilitating the process as a mediator.

I’m reminded of a well-known quote from one of the most successful investors of all time, Warren Buffett:
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

I’m not suggesting that Dubai investors received a direct memo from Buffett, but their behavior certainly seems to reflect this principle.

That said, I don’t want to get ahead of myself or make firm conclusions about international politics, as the situation is still evolving.

I will now present some figures related to a single community in Dubai—Al Furjan. After analyzing transaction volumes and current stock availability across apartments, townhouses, and villas, here is what I found:

Transactions

In the apartment market, there has been a significant decline. Transactions dropped from 155 in January to just 47 by the end of March—a decrease of 69.6%.

In January, a total of 22 townhouses were sold in Al Furjan. This figure fell by 59% in March, with only 9 units sold.

Interestingly, villa transactions increased. While 12 villas were sold in January, this number rose to 15 in March. Of these, only 5 transactions were mortgage-based, while the remaining 10 were cash purchases. This suggests that higher-ticket investors were less affected by current conditions compared to lower-ticket buyers.

Stock

In the apartment segment, available stock in Al Furjan decreased by 67%, indicating that many sellers withdrew their properties from the market.

Townhouse inventory declined by 35%, while villa stock dropped by 42%.

Summary

The US-Iran conflict has significantly impacted both transaction volumes and available inventory. However, Dubai’s real estate market has demonstrated a remarkable level of resilience and continues to hold strong.